The Sweet Spot
posted on
Jan 27, 2011 11:38PM
Our Legend co-investor George Soros just gave a rare interview from Davos. I praise the interviewer for pressing him and getting some surprisingly solid forecasts from a self-proclaimed non-forecaster / retired investor.
http://www.gurufocus.com/news.php?id=120492
Key highlights:
1. Commodity boom has lasted a decade and has about two years to go before supply catches up. (my interpretation: how are suppliers going to catch up? Might need some more P2O5?)
2. The boom is currently in "the sweet spot": zero interest rates in US + imported inflation from developing world = negative real rates in essence so people avoid dollar & currencies to be invested in real stuff (by sweet spot my interpretation is the last exponential gasp up...he's done extensive writings on bubbles and the exponential end)
3. US economy could be due for a stop in about 2012 after the current go (this is not favorable to commodities)
4. US within a year or so is due for a crisis similar to europe with states and local munis. Eg. only fed gov can print money. GOP not likely to allow bail out. (My interpretation: Meredith Whitney has spent 2 years of research on this, I'm betting George bought her reports. Think of the impact on the dollar if that happends...remember what happened to gold & commodities during 2009 europe crisis)