Re: The SP is taking a beating - buying opportunity?
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 05, 2011 12:08AM
My long rampling opinion:
The way I see it, no one should be surprised, we were at .6 a few months ago. Insiders hold such a high percentage this is a VERY thinly traded security...AKA very high volatility. I wouldn't be surprised if we stop by .6 again.
My approach is, ask yourself why you bought LGDI in the first place and (as Rumsfeld says) what were the known knowns, known unknowns, and unknown unknowns. Since then, has any new development or information for the company or the sector either reinforced or contradicted your assumption?
Company running out of money. It was known that they were going to spend about 30M a year so that should not have been a surprise. If this is a surprise that they'll have to borrow money & raise funds, no offense but you are a foolish investor for not realizing that in advance. I'd advise you sell now and re-evaluate your assumtions if you missed that.
Delays? Yes that could be a factor, is that enough to change the whole outlook? This is definately a concern that could change the picture.
Price volatility? Again if this is coming as a surprise, you are a foolish investor for not realizing this as a likely certain possibility.
Has any recent news in the agriculture/fertilizer section changed the bullish long term outlook? Personally, I think things are getting more bullish daily.
Has there been dilution of stock, or is there an increased risk of dilution?
Are insiders, either hedge funds or managers, selling?
Has the value of the phosphate assets held by the company changed at all?
Has new information surfaced revealing there was an error in calculating the value of the assets?
Has the feasibility of profiting from the assets taken a change for the negative?
And the most important of all questions: If you were to start over, with all the company & industry information you've accumulated, would you invest in LGDI right now, today, at this price? If no then sell. If yes than buy more or hold. Its that easy. This reminds me of what Seth Klarman always says....If price drops 50% without impacting your original thesis, first verify the assumptions of your thesis, if it still holds, then you have 1/2 the risk with twice the profit potential.
I admit its easier for those of us lucky enough to buy right at the bottom. But in times like this, best thing to do is keep a level head, ask questions, and answer them detached and rationally. Personally, I've been struggling with the delays and eventually that issue alone could change the picture for me, I think thats the biggest risk. Although, all the new information for the fertilizer sector is reinforcing my assumption which I still hold as valid (invest in a company levered to the price of phosphate, protect from inflation in the long term by owning stuff in the ground) so I don't see a late-2008 style price drop very likely. With all the recent commodity industry buyouts, at some point the stuff in the ground will be purchased before a price crash.