I can't disagree with your assessment. If they were closer to getting a deal done the shares should be moving higher, not continuing to drop. Because the smart money would be buying and others would follow. That's not happening, so the only conclusion that I can make is they're no closer yet.

I don't know if it means a deal won't get done, but considering on how far the share price has dropped it has to make you wonder if it will get done.