Re: What will this mean for the common shareholder?
in response to
by
posted on
Feb 13, 2012 06:41PM
Slager should be done by month end. That is when he is returning all capital to his hedge fund investors and buying the remaining illiquid assets for his personal account, including, presumably, LGDI. This injection of capital breathes new life into the company, but it is not a very good deal on the face of it. With 226mm shares currently outstanding, a 35% dilution amounts to the issuance of about 121mm new shares at a price of 6.2 cents each. That's not quite accurate, because LGDI has some other assets, but effectively Paradise will be the main asset. A major potential problem I see is if Paradise does not have a "successful" IPO within 12 months, then the convertible bond will be due. If Legend cannot repay the loan, it will once again be facing bankruptcy. So this is clearly desperation financing, and it is not clear the 7.5mm will keep the company alive long enough to do the IPO, or whether that IPO will raise sufficient capital to open the mine and start generating cashflow. LGDI has already raised probably at least $150mm in capital ... what happened to that? Why couldn't they get the mine running by now? How much more can they raise by yet another IPO? Anyway, I'm still hoping for the best. If the market is friendly, the long suffering shareholders may end up with some value. Theoretically, the mine could generate about $100mm of EBIDTA and the LGDI stake could be worth $225mm or $1/shr, but that is probably a best case scenario at this point, IMHO.