What is "SP?" Anyway, there are a lot of "ifs" ... IF they can IPO 20-30mm, IF that is enough money to develop the mine and start shipping rock, IF we can trust Gutnick. The 350pg 8K is complicated to say the least. One thing we know is that the 7.5mm has bot a little time and hopefully they will pull off the IPO successfully to buy a little more time. Why they could not open the mine with the 150mm+ that has already been raised (mostly in 2008) calls into question whether the additional 20-30mm is enough, or is this just a way to keep the scam going so they can milk it a little longer? I repeat my earlier post that this looks suspiciously like a Ponzi scheme, where our best hope is that new chumps come in after us, providing an opportunity to cash out before the whole thing eventually collapses in total ruin.

On the plus side, and the reason I invested originally, if they can start mining rock at a cost of $100/ton and they can sell the stuff for $200/ton, that is $100mm of EBITDA per year, suggesting an enterprise value of $300mm+. If LGDI owns two thirds of that enterprise, the stock should be worth on the order of 88 cents ($200mm divided by 226mm shares outstanding, assuming no debt). The investors in Paradise should be a happy bunch as well, since their $25mm IPO investment should be worth about $100mm if my fantasy scenario comes true. Actually, the upside is even greater than that ... if LGDI becomes cash flow positive it would have the ability to develop other opportunities, such as the benefication plant, etc., and it could become a takeover candidate.

Unfortunately, this is probably not the scenario that will be realized. Our best hope is that there is a whiff of hope of such an outcome, providing a pop in the shares and the opportunity to get the hell out of this disaster.