geo,
I think your best and worst case scenarios are very plausible.
Best case--If they hit some decent U grades in a pipe or two, Big Chunk, and Providence get JVed this year, you could see $2.50. One of them-.50 to .60, two of them-$1.00 to $1.25.
Worst case-- Nothing happens for for a year, you could see .04 or .05 with dilution besides. Some cash will have to come from somewhere. However, if they do get a major int. co. to JV Big Chunk, often a deal like that comes with a million or two up front or something p/yr, or stock. That would negate the need for dilution.