Re: Potential Share Prices?
in response to
by
posted on
Apr 27, 2017 01:24PM
Combining Classic Mineral Exploration with State of the Art Technology
"All of value is the anticipation of future benefits" Oliver Wendell Holms
However, there are limits. If you anticipate an income stream amounting to a gross value of 100 billion dollars, or a trillion, over a term of, say, 80 years, the market will not pay for it. The market looks at an anticipated present value of a net income stream over a shorter period of years. In the case of mining companies, almost never more than 20 years, and often just 12-15.
This means that the gross value of metal in the ground as held by just about any mining company is fairly meaningless. What matters most is how quickly they can get what they can out of the ground, and at what cost.
To further complicate this answer, a producer with 15+ years of remaining mine life should be worth a lot more than a recent discovery (assumde to have a 15+ year mine life), all other things being equal.
So, in terms of what the capitalized value of what this stock could be worth, assuming good returns from drilling, it's way too early to guess as we have no idea as to the mix of metals, the grades, the costs, and more, nor do we know what percent of Hay Mountain LBSR will hold when these claims become productive.
Having said these things, I would expect an annoucement on drilling to send the capitalization up 5 times, or more. With spectacular results as we have been expecting - now greatly improved too with finding that a previously unrecognized ore body may be at surface (as well as at depth) - the sky is the limit. I will not guess the outer limits of that, but see 20 time the present capitalization as an immediate minimum, and much more later as continuing drilling adds to the story.
Still, we needPhase I drilling, and an understanding of potential complications, even if grades are good.
I know this is not the answer you were looking for, but I hope it helps some.
VP