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Message: POC

You are probably witnessing part of the real estate cycle.  That is one which includes swings from tough credit availability to easy money.  During the tough times, building slows and foreclosures increase.  In easy times for credit, construction booms. 

Seemingly there are no governors on the market, nothing to ease the transition from one cycle to another.  In tough times, lenders become flush with cash.  As they begin lending and as qualifications are eased, they get overextended.  That is where we are now - more money going into that market than it can sustain in a healthy way.   I am seeing massive overbuilding around the country with the largest parts of that being in multiple-family structures - condos and apartments. 

How does this happen?

Before the bottom drops outs, developers get paid, contractors get paid, loan originators get paid, and loan sellers get paid.  Who is left to hold the bag?  Taxpayers, because most all of those loans are insured by various government agencies.

My conclusion?  This is not a time to be investing in real estate unless it is has a special utility removing it from the normal market cycles.

Having said these things, no one - except by chance - can know when a bull market will end (for construction or otherwise).

Real estate economics was my first calling.     

 

 

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