Re: A question of fair value (my discounting technique)
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 26, 2007 08:55AM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
_shark,
It's all about discounting, right? Here's one man's opinion, for what its worth:
Discounted cash flow from Omagine's future business is expressed in phases:
First, the construction buildout of $1.6 with cash flow of $300 million, including $8.o million cash within a few weeks.
secondly, the value of the operating franchise between 2018 and 2058 following the buildout, and
thirdly, the prospective cash flow from the continuing company.
I value Omagine as a startup having proven management and very reliable partners, recently announced, that together occupy the cat-bird-seat in a financially sound government sponsored community that should thrive.
Therefore, based upon Omagine's announcements to date, I calculate the stock's discounted present value, before the signing, at $4.00 per share, and the value after signing of $6.00, from which I expect a 20+% annual rate of return, thereafter.
But, I look at it as a stepout discounting process. As the construction phase ends the transition into an ongoing operational property management business begins, against an overall property growth for the country of 7%, after the current explosion period over the next 5-10 years, as forecasted by Oman.
There is no premium here for uniqueness or hype, quite the contrary. It should be all about confidence in management, their partners, and the opening of a new environment having very long range, assured opportunities. Dilution is always a concern, but with dilution can come power, certainty and flexibility, unless it turns out to be corrupted. I know and trust top management to take the high road.