One mile of Ocean Front, One Incredible Real Estate Development

Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman

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Message: Re: stock price

Oct 04, 2011 07:00PM

Oct 05, 2011 09:53AM

Oct 05, 2011 11:07AM

Oct 05, 2011 03:18PM

Well, there's alot to respond to. The immediate "play" is the asset value. Once the DA is signed, some money will start to flow to OMAG immediately and some of it will come in installments over a few years. Assuming the market recognizes all of that immediately, we're looking at $80m x 60% ownership interest in LLC comes to $48m. That's $3.75/share ... which is already recognized in the current price. Next comes the contribution of the land which will need to be appraised (shouldn't take long ... it's a bunch of dirt in a great location with a huge resort future). The last time OMAG disclosed the value was in its 2006 annual report ... at $270m. Surely worth a lot more now. But take that at the old price (again, at 60%), and you get an additional $12.65/share. I think that value or more should be immediately realized as it is/will be a hard asset. I believe the plan is for Oman to contribute that land as soon as the appraisal is completed. In my mind that's this year. So, this gets you, CONSERVATIVELY, to a price in the high teens, but likely higher.

Next, consider the $500m net present value of the expected future cash flows (assuming management is accurate in their estimation), again @ 60% and that's an additional $23.40/share estimation for future CFs ... on top of the asset valuation. Of course, one should assume some execution risk which may serve to lower the $500m estimate, but I think at this point, we're happy.

I don't recall specifics, but I thought their recent 8ks, etc. mentioned other projects that they were looking into. But I suspect Omagine is it ... for now. Remember, OMAG will also be running the resort once it's up and running ... sale of residential units, etc.

I'm not planning on taking the money and running, although I might take SOME money off the table to reduce my concentration. But I'll likely keep a good portion of what I own for the forseeable future. Have no idea what the price will be in 2 - 3 years, but surely it will be "a tad higher" than today's price!

Lastly, I think there's a lot of psychology here with pent up anticipation ... you know, like when we were kids on Christmas Eve! The wait seems longer every day ... yet time is still going by at 60 seconds/minute (last time I checked!). The market volatility only makes it harder to stay committed.

Anyway, here's hoping we're all right!


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