Reminder to the World
posted on
May 15, 2013 02:47PM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
I hope you guys don't mind, but I want to repeat the calculus involved that I shared some time ago ... in the hope that new readers will understand just how important this imminent signing of the DA is to us. This is based on my reading of the 10K a couple of years ago and some of the data points have changed, but not materially. I'll leave it to others to correct any material points, but the gist of the math is what counts.
Once the DA is signed, that should end delays and the project can then proceed. Shortly after signing the DA, the shareholders of LLC (the Omagine Inc. subsidiary) will contribute $70 million in cash to LLC (almost all from NON-OMAG shareholders). This will add $2.87/share to OMAG's book value (BV) ($70m times 60% / 14.63 million shares outstanding).
The Sultanate will contribute the land to LLC for the project to be built upon. There are no recent, published (that I'm aware of) valuations of this land (it will be valued by outside experts shortly after the signing), but conservative estimates have it at $325 million. That would translate to an additional $13.33/share (same 60%, etc.).
There are other sums involved, including a $9 million payment to OMAG from the Omanis, and a $10 million "Success Fee". This would add approx. $1.30/share to BV.
In aggregate, this adds up to $17.50 of additional book value. Now I'm sure I don't have the current numbers right, but the point is that BV is likely to go to mid-to-upper teens soon.
Next, the net present value (NPV) of expected cash inflows, after the 60% ownership share of LLC, over the life of the project could be several hundred $ million. This could be any number, but likely well north of $5/share (I once calculated it at around $12/share, but don't want to be seen speculating ... although I guess I just did!). My $5 figure is just low balling.
Lastly, the market may very well place a multiplier on the BV.
So, the rough calculus above shows a very handsome reward potential ... a potential that I don't think we've seen as this likely before.
I know we've all been at this point before, but I truly believe the head of the MOT will finally keep his word and sign this by the end of May, if not sooner.
And Frank, stay away from the hookah pipe!