Re: Latest Book Value Estimates
in response to
by
posted on
Aug 22, 2013 08:59AM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
Good question. Given that our company is technically insolvent with a negative net worth of $1,167,763 as of June 30, 2013, the current BV is -$0.08/share. So technically, you would need to add this negative to my number from last night. Obviously it's immaterial. And yes, my $21.40 BV increase EXCLUDES the net present value of future cash flows from profits.
So, IF my back of the envelope calculation for the value of the land is correct (and it certainly is NOT correct), my number should, theoretically, be a minimum. Whether the market recognizes that or not is, sadly, not up to me (I know, you're as surprised as I am!).
And yes, I don't see why my missive last night couldn't be used as a base with tweaks along the way. My guess is the tweaks will be in the number of shares outstanding (likely to increase over time as management utilizes the SEDA (Stand-by Equity Distribution Agreement) with YA Global Master SPV Ltd (page 16 of Q2 2013 10-Q). And, obviously, the value of the land. I don't see anything else changing as it's all contractually agreed to within the DA and other documents.
BTW, I did not mention a "juicy" piece on federal net operating loss carry forwards at the bottom of page 15. OMAG has $14 million in carryforwards that expire in various amounts from fiscal year 2017 through 2032. Assuming we start to earn profits by 2017 (which is certainly a reasonable time frame) we have beaucoup carry forwards that will allow pre-tax profits to drop to the bottom line ... further increasing shareholder value. Again, this has NOT been factored into my math.