Book Value Should Rise to ...
posted on
Oct 02, 2014 09:02PM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
Before I start, about a week ago (see "Another, Lesser Issue") I commented that the latest company filing indicated a potential to issue up to an additional 3 million shares to YA under the SEDA agreement. It appears unlikely that so many shares will now need to be issued, if any at all. As the price goes up, fewer shares will be needed to be issued to raise capital for immediate / medium term needs. Much depends on how quickly the money begins to flow due to the DA signing trigger. The sooner, the less likely the need to trigger the SEDA.
So the calculations below assume no additional shares are issued. FYI, if a full 3m more shares WERE to be issued, the BV/share as shown below would drop to a still stunning $23.79/share.
If anyone has any questions regarding the calculations below, feel free to ask. The gist of it is that Omagine Inc. ("Omag") owns 60% of Omagine LLC ("LLC"). So on a consolidated basis, any increase or decrease in LLC's value impacts Omag by 60%. If LLC's net worth (BV) goes up $100, then Omag's net worth goes up by $60.
The RCA has agreed to pay $70m in cash for it's stake in LLC, of which a small portion has already been paid. The remaining $69,779,000 is to follow. After the 60% is applied, that works out to $2.21/share. Other fees add close to $1/share (as shown below). But the big kicker is the land. Management has conservatively estimated that it's worth $650m in a rising real estate market ... and this parcel is prime real estate that's in hot demand. So using that number, times 60%, gets another $20+/share. Allow me to pause for a moment. About a year or so ago, probably longer, we thought it was perhaps worth $300 million based on some stuff that I can't remember right now. So at that time, we thought it would add about $12/share. So this is the reason for the big change in my earlier estimate vs my current estimate. My gut tells me $650 million is low, but my gut can't be audited nor appraised.
So, the final number some of you have been asking me for is ... $28.26.
Now, before HM or anyone else jumps down my throat about how I could expect the price to go so high, let me once again reaffirm that I am talking about book value. If the market, in it's infinite wisdom believes I am too low, they could price the stock at a premium. Or, if the market, in a clear case of disbelief, should choose to believe I've drunk too much Kool Aid, could price the stock at a discount. My point is, even at a discount, this baby is worth an awful lot.
But I think we can all agree on one thing: THIS AFTERNOON WAS AWESOME!!!!
Shares Outstanding: | 15,955,798 | <--- Add'l shares to YA | |||
($000s) | OMAG 60% | Per Share Book Value | Running Total | ||
Conservative Est. of Land ($650/sq meter * 1,000,000 sq meters): | $650,000 | $390,000 | $24.44 | $24.44 | |
Infusion of $69m into LLC shortly after DA is signed: | $69,779 | $41,867 | $2.62 | $27.07 | |
(1) Pre-Development Reimbursement to OMAG: | $9,000 | $9,000 | $0.56 | $27.63 | |
(2) Success Fee to OMAG: | $10,000 | $10,000 | $0.63 | $28.26 | |
(1) At secondary closing (shortly after DA is signed), all $9m of pre-development reimbursements will be booked, with | |||||
half as cash and the remainder as a receivable to be collected over next several years. | |||||
(2) At secondary closing, all $10m of Success Fee will be booked, with $2m as cash and the remainder as a receivable | |||||
collected over next 5 years ($2m/year). |