That makes sense ... but for it looks like the USA is expected to have a solid retail experience Q4 and had a very good November ... better than expected. Of course, the USA doesn't mean the world. I know Europe is certainly struggling. It's a wonder that transfering money from the wealthy to the less so hasn't fixed the problem. I've read in the main stream press many times that that is all that's needed. Tongue in cheek to those who may take me too seriously at times.

A brief in mention in Friday's Investor's Business Daily (page B3): "Some analysts see a downside to low oil prices, thanks to the Federal Reserve's policies. A Bloomberg News article reported that some market watchers contend the Fed's near-zero interest rates policy has created a bubble in energy-company debt. The default rate on energy-related junk bonds will leap, according to this scenario."

Given the recent strength of the oil sector, and many of the smaller players already cutting back on exploration/drilling plans in response to the oil price drop, it seems to me that the industry is in relatively good shape to withstand a drop. And I think it would be the smaller players hit first. Not to mention there is constant R&D going on to further increase the efficiencies of horizontal drilling and fracking. So I'm not sure how low rates will cause junk bonds to default. Certainly, as/when rates rise, the holders of any debt will get hurt as the market value of their bonds plummet, but how does that impact default rates?

Anyway, I never did well in college economics and am still baffled.

Hey, I wrote a lot ... was that enough time for another 8k to come out?