Re: Reply to stock_shark1 - potential upside
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 15, 2015 04:14PM
Multi-Billion Dollar Agreement Signed With Oman
It's correct that OMAG shareholders won't be diluted, HOWEVER, our "share" of the increased book value of LLC WILL BE "diluted". Our share of $718m at 60% is $431m now. If, let's say for argument's sake, an additional 5% of LLC is sold to new investors, that would reduce our ownership stake in LLC to 55%. Which would then reduce our share of the $718m book value to 55%, or $395m. Which would come out to a "mere" $23/share in book value of OMAG on a consolidated basis ($22/share once Tempest's 1 million shares are registered and become part of the float). BUT, much depends on how much new investors pay for LLC. To the extent they pay close to the BV of LLC, then we benefit, and I think this is what will happen. The book value, or carrying value, of LLC before the usufruct agreement was finalized was, I believe, nil. It has now improved by $718m. I don't know how many shares of LLC are outstanding (that is the sum of all shares owned by OMAG, CCC, RCA, etc.), but if we sell a piece of LLC for at least the equivalent book value/share, then we benefit because of the relatively large amount of cash received by LLC from the new investors. So the increased value of LLC is offset by the decrease in our ownership share. A wash or better.
Nevertheless, it provides for much more financial flexibility and tremendous upside for existing shareholders. If the market value were already at $25/share, then we would likely lose a few dollars per share in value. But we're not even close to that, so it doesn't concern me. It's like counting your chickens before they hatch. This sucker hasn't hatched yet. When it does, I'll be greatful for any upside. And I DO expect substantial upside under any scenerio. Hope this helps.