I looked at it slightly differently. I own both PRB and FNC as side bets to NOT. I bought them for their proximity to DE1 and would not have considered them otherwise.

Everyone follows their own logic in justifying why they like what they like, but to me, saying what PRB and NOT is worth without DE doesn't make sense. While I realize there is value in PRB outside of the DE1 claim area I look at their price pre-DE and that is what the stocks are worth if they don't hit. Both PRB and FNC will shed off most of their cap and trading volumes and will plummet. If that happens it will be next to impossible to get out without driving them down even further and there will be very few buyers after the first surge of downward trades. Since a 80-90% loss won't be much different from a 100% loss I didn't even consider what they are worth without their proximity.

I looked into the exploration history of both properties and I didn't see anything to worry about. There is a PRB drill hole in FNC's claim block but it was drilled in the opposite direction of FNC 1-3, 1-4. You may want to do your own DD on that. Its publicly available data.

So in the end it was proximity to DE-1 combined with my interpretation of the geophysics and news releases that led me to believe that there is a strong possibility that FNC 1-3 and 1-4 may be related to DE1. I also like the FNC anomaly in the top right claim block (I don't have the anomaly number in front of me). Not having PRB's or NOT's geophysics I made an assumption on PRB being proximally related/connected to DE-1. There are other PRB plays but to me they are a side show to what already is a side bet.

There are many other plays that you could also look at and they all have a story. The key to remember is that all these regional plays have already seen a 4x to 15 x multiple built into them because of NOT's DE-1&2. If a company drills and doesn't hit anything they are going to be pounded. On the other hand hitting a significant deposit like DE-1 that adds $800 million plus to their cap will results in gains of 10 times or better regardless of the number of outstanding shares.

So my choice was proximity alone. FNC being ranked 1st and PRB being second. As to your comment about FNC management and communications I agree. I have also previously stated I don't like the lack of spending on the property, but I do like the land position. The good news is IF you are playing for a HIT vs a trading play it doesn't matter. If FNC hits events will accelerate past the companies ability to control them and the money and changes will flow.

My best advise is to do your own DD and make your investment choice based upon your own criteria. I see lots of people subscribing to other people's views and tagging along. However, aside from a few insiders (of which I am not one) everyone is making a high risk speculative bet on very little information and a lot of hype. Listening to what everyone has to say, verify and evaluate it carefully, understand the biases (good and bad) and then either make your bet or not based on what makes sense to you.

Hope this helps.

.... Been There