Probe Mines' shares at bargain basement prices
posted on
Mar 18, 2009 09:51AM
Some years back I became interested in Probe Mines only because of the 5% royalty interest in the Goldex property claims exchanged to Agnico-Eagle Mines for that interest. In the interim I have watched a bubble expand and pop concerning all the Mcfauld's Lake enthusiasm. So where does that leave shareholders now?
Of all the millions of shares that traded above the $1.00 level during that great speculative burst the aftermath has left many folks financially decimated. If we have $6,000,000 or so left in the treasury, 5.6 cents of the share's last sale is represented by cash. With the last sale of 7 cents, it appears the "free market" if you could call it that is putting a value of 1.4 cents per share value on our royalty, our holdings in other companies, joint ventures and our mineral claims. To me, that seems completely absurd. At 7 cents a share, the total market captialization is $2,353,736.35. At the share's high, assuming we had the full outstanding at that time the value would have been over $52 million.
Sure, the bubble pushed share prices out of sight but the collapsing base metal prices really did us all in along with some disappointing core drilling results plus general deflation and possible personal credit problems of shareholders. Following the madness of McFauld's Lake public buying stampede I think it came home to settle in the minds of many people that the remoteness of the area along with the time and money to develop yet undefined deposits would be more burdensome than originally thought.
Still there is reason to hope. China has started exchanging some of the US dollars held as reserves into copper recently along with other base metals thus firming prices. The following attached article makes the case for higher gold prices which would make our royalty interest at Goldex theoretically worth that much more awaiting a possible revenue stream.
The last I read Agnico-Eagle will be pulling over 180,000 ounces of gold out of the ground this year at Goldex. What better place to have a royalty participation than right there in the mix? Let's say that Agnico takes 20,000 of gold from our exchanged claims in the near future, that means we will receive 1000 ounces or the equivalent in cash. At about $890 gold this morning in US funds, that's about $1,130,300 in Canadian funds. Just one assumed yearly payment of that amount would jolt the share price higher. That payment would be about half of our the company's current market value.
Probe trading at 7 cents a share would appear to make no allowance for this possibility. So, I believe we can safely state that any seller that kicks out his shares at these prices should have done his or her due diligence first to understand that they don't want to be selling their shares to insiders who have done their homework and will probably be selling the same shares in the future at prices in the excess of $1.00 again.
Also, it should be mentioned that West Timmins Mining, our partner, is drilling and finding more gold south-west of Timmins and adjacent to our JV claims.
GOLD SALE ENDS SOON
The downward pressure on gold will end soon because central bank supplies of gold are running out. For the past thirty-five years, thousands of tons of central bank gold have been sold to force gold lower. When those supplies are gone, so, too, will be the gold prices we see today.
When the central bank cap on gold is finally forced off, gold will not just be off to the races, gold will bolt the barn leaving it and the racetrack far behind; so far, central bankers have been successful at preventing this. Soon, they will be unable to do so.
Each run-up in gold has forced central bankers to sell their ever dwindling stocks to keep the price of gold from going parabolic. When gold made its run in the fall of 2007 from $680 to $1,033 in spring 2008, the Swiss National Bank sold 22 tons of gold to cap gold’s rise.
One year later (after the collapse of global stock markets in the fall of 2008), gold made another run at $1,000; but this time when gold hit $1,009 on February 20th , LeMetropole reported central banks sold 220 tons of gold to force gold below $900.
In 2008, 22 tons of gold were necessary to force gold down from $1,000. In 2009, 220 tons were required to do the same. Next time, central banks may not have enough gold to turn back an even more powerful tide of paper money seeking the safety of gold.
After LeMetropole noted the sale of 220 tons of central bank gold, the Financial Times next reported that the Washington Accord capping central bank gold sales at 500 tons a year may be renegotiated to allow higher sales.
The sale of over 220 tons of central bank gold in only nine weeks leaves approximately only 250 tons left to be sold the rest of the year; and, if stock markets collapse again this year—and they will—gold will explode upwards but this time with far greater force and take out $1,000 as easily as a herd of bulls would take out a picket fence as they run for freedom—especially if central bank sales of gold are limited as they are today.
We are in the last days of paper money’s longest run. No economy built on fiat paper money has ever lasted in the history of the world; and, although governments have tried to do so for almost 1,000 years, all have failed. That the current system lasted three hundred years did not mean it would last forever.
As Bernard Madoff’s Ponzi scheme attests, no fraud, no matter how large, i.e. $50 billion or $50 trillion, can withstand the test of time. Not even a Ponzi scheme that has enlisted the participation and cooperation of all governments and all central banks.
All frauds come to an end, even one as large and as long-lasting as the banker’s substitution of government coupons for gold and silver. The game is over except for the shouting—and not even all the King’s men, e.g. Bernanke, Geithner, Volcker, Summers, et. al., can put Humpty-Dumpty together again.