Re: what is probe worth
in response to
by
posted on
Nov 25, 2009 08:30PM
I've held a large position in Probe for a number of years and I'd love for them to be at $1.50, however the reality is there's no way Black Creek will ever come close in tonnage to Black Thor simply because Probe's land containing the Black Creek Deposit is so small.
Black Creek pretty much cuts the tip of the Black Thor and Big Daddy deposits. Probe reports a 200 metre strike to depths of 200 meters. The average true width is likely around 30 meters (what others have reported) which would make Black Creek approx 8 million tons at present. Black thor has a strike length of 2600 meters or 13 times the strike length of Black Creek. I don't think there is any chance Probe can come close to what Freewest has found, but even if they did, Noront still owns half of it. I'm not a math wiz either but unfortunately I don't think Black Creek will provide much upside to our share price, unless an all-out bidding war between those who wish to control North American chromite ensues. Then all bets are off.
Frankly, I'm not sure why Probe gave 50% of this deposit away to Noront in their JV when everyone and his dog knew the chromite was sitting right there between Black Thor and Big Daddy long before Probe gave it away.
The real game changer for Probe would be an extention of the Eagle's nest deposit at depth on their McFaulds West Property 450 meters from the Eagle's Nest. Then we'd see what having a small float would do to our share price. Curently we're at 0.46 but with an Eagle hit at depth, we'd be at 4.60 in a blink of an eye.