XSTRATA not in for just 30%! PRB assets??
posted on
Dec 07, 2010 01:39PM
Based on most recent news release from KWG...possible link to PRB
Just MHO but it seems logical that if the Xstrata processing reveals the kind of metalurgical results that we are all looking for (high probabilitiy) and that which would make it feasible for them to reduce their dependency on South Africa (hydro and transport problems)...it just seems to make sense that they would try to gain a position equal or better than Cliffs....and possibly much more in the long run.
If they only go after KWG chromium assets, they would be in a weak position whereby Cliffs would call the shots on the sequence / rate of development. (Black Thor vs BD). If on the other hand, they take-over the KWG chromium assets as well as the PRB chromium assets, (or JV with KWG in buying out PRB chromite) then they assume the drivers seat and a great relationship with KWG and their RR.
Furthermore if they pick up both chromium assets and participate in the development of the RR, then they could dramatically pressure Cliffs, by developping Black Creek (similar tonnage and chromite concentration), partner up with Canada Chrome and the Cdn Gov/First Nations without ever having to suck up to Cliffs for their 30% of BD, which in essence would become their long term reserves for the future. They might also eventually be in a position to take Cliffs out of the game completely.
Xstarta more than anyone else, knows the impact (on overall cost per tonne), of having to ship their chrome from locations such as South Africa to markets and buyers all over the world, notwithstanding the regular delays due to geo political issues that arise in countries where the infrastructure is not as stable as Canada's, especially if the metalurgical results show excellent cost efficiencies of shipping directly to the buyers.
Posession is 9/10ths of the law and Xstrata would be in a position where they could fairly easily control the flow of resources to the North American and world markets... Wow!! I am guessing that this kind of combination of timing, opportunity and asset quality doesn't come along too often, even for a international mega player like Xstrata.
Exciting chess game shaping up...good luck to all KWG/PRB longs.
LP