Re: burn rate....Hmmm! makes me wonder!
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 01, 2011 11:30AM
Not sure I agree with your assumption Fantomas...a lower PP price would attract more interest, but that doesn't really fulfill the board's "prime directive".
If PRB needs X,xxx,xxx dollars to stay with the plan, a lower SP makes it more difficult to raise that amount and thus forces PRB to issue more shares in the PP, which dilutes the total even more = lower market cap = less value to the shareholder....Unless we are looking at a spin out of gold assets in which case the value of PRB gold and PRB chrome will find their respective resting prices after the actual spin out, and the price pressure that we are currently witnessing is created by speculators or insiders, given the ease with which it is being done due to the low volume. If the SP is actually being artificially suppressed (high probability) then it is most likely driven by the interest of an acquirer.
In the long run, it's better for the PRB investors to participate in a PP at a slightly higher level so as to increase the value of the company as a whole and thus exponentially increase the future take over value. To me the greatest value could be achieved by an outside entity, (Xstrata, Vale, or other) acquiring an equal or superior position to Cliffs, by taking out chrome assets form both PRB and KWG, while creating a partnership with CC for the RR. That would wake-up Cliffs and probably initiate a bidding war...and conversely of course, that is detrimental to both bidders.
It is also possibly the primary reason why it hasn't happen yet, and also why any possible bidders are caught between a rock and chrome mine (haha)...wait and pay more because of confirmed drill results, or make your move and launch competing bids which still drive the SP higher.
Just MHO...still interested in other vues and rationale.
LP