Why PRB share price seems to be capped
posted on
Aug 23, 2011 02:37PM
This initial resource estimate is stunning. A 4 million ounce project going to 8 million? 10 million? 20 million ounces? should have this stock doubling within a day or so. But the PRB stock price has not moved. Why?
1) There is $50 million of stock and warrants which have just become freely tradeable (18.5 million shares and 9.25 million warrants). The market has just gone through a major correction, and some of these shareholders want to lock in a partial or complete gain, when the rest of their portfolio is down. This is only natural, and nothing to be alarmed about.
2) Although BMO sold this stock, they have not initiated their research yet. This always takes a bit of time. My guess is that they were waiting for this resource to be announced before completing their analysis. Hopefully this report will be out sooner rather than later.
3) Without a research report there are no new net buyers. The company has not spread the story wide (I assume they are counting on BMO to do this), and thus the only readers of the PR today are existing shareholders who are most likely already as long as they are going to get.
4) Up to now, other brokerage firms have had no desire to write research on a company that (a) does not have a NI-43-101 resource or (b) is not giving the firm investment banking business. This will most likely change, since with the NI-43-101 estimate, other brokerages should begin to jump on the PRB bandwagon, either to help make their clients money or to get in the queue for the next financing.
All this to say that there are some sellers from the private placement and only limited new buyers of the stock at this point in time. This should change in the near term as new retail clients and institutional clients start to discover one of the most promising gold finds in Canada.