Re: RBC - Exploration Upside Remains; Trading at a Discount to Low-Grade Peers
posted on
Apr 05, 2012 05:53PM
Burning, thanks for providing the summary pages of the pdfs for RBC and BMO. Along with Mackie re-evaluation we have Nothern and Jennings to come in the complete the set presented in Slide 5 of PRB Corporate Presentation. We need to take into account the method of calculation and assumptions used when we attempt to compare the valuation results. Some items to keep in mind:
- Method: BMO used a strange method, not consistent with the other 4, so this is the item that would need to be scrutinized.
- assumptions: BC chromite was assigned different (and low) by Nothern and RBC. The other 3 did not assign any value...$zero for BC?
- Borden Lake: BMO gives $68M (very low-ball) compared the other 4 (in the $300M range)
- Cash: nobody seemed to take the $32M cash in their valuation.
RECAP
- Northern: new valuation not yet available (NA), old NAV: $4.98/s: old target: $5.0/sFD
- Mackie: new valuation NAV: $5.25/s (old 5.64); target: 4.00 (same as before)
- Jennnings: new valuation NA ? can someone verify this,; old NAV 4.73 (new:?); old target: 4.75
- RBC: new valuation NAV 2.71 (old 4.26); new target: 2.50 (old: 4.26)
- BMO: revised new valuation NAV: 2.10; new target: not given
Despite the stellar results fro the new drill data, PRB valuation was adjusted down, with BMO's NAV being the lowest among the 5.
(Note also the discussions in the 2 summaries kindly provided by BurningRoF about PRB versus its peers).
So, how we can we wrap our heads around this. Point the finger at the drop in PoG?
goldhunter