Q&A
posted on
Apr 19, 2012 06:18PM
Two facts to start with, due to my very cautious approach:
1. I will be using 81.5M fully diluted shares and
2. a 0.6 gpt Au cut-off for our updated global resource containing 3,774,000 oz. Au
That gives us a value per ounce, based on today´s closing price of $ 1.05, of $ 44 per ounce, with a very, very conservative valuation model (other more optimistic valuations could go as low as $6 per ounce by now).
Taken that into account, I did contact the company again just to voice my fears of a take-over attempt, asking some questions.
Here are the (paraphrased) answers:
- there is a Shareholder Rights Plan in place and the company is confident to have a group of selected supporters (including management) which has a big enough percentage share of the company to face any takeover attempts
- the company has done a remarkable job in proving up two significant discoveries (BC,BL) in a very short period of time
- the company has aggressive drilling plans in place
- Probe is well financed for the future
- Probe has aquisition strategies
- the Board is well aware of the strategic option to spin out Black Creek
- the company acknowledges the poor share price performance in light of very difficult market conditions
- the company acknowledges the added pressure of selling of FT shares (Probe has traded over 10,000,000 shares in just over a month since March 12; in comparison, approximately 9 million shares in total were traded in the three MONTHS prior. So we should be getting close to the end of the overhang from the flow-through shares - especially after seeing the 1,154,300 share cross that was executed today.)
- the company is disappointed to see and they have taken note of the way shares flooded the market, considering alternatives of possible future financings
- Probe is ridiculously low valued - the main solution is seen in continued drilling to build shareholder value once the market conditions change, because the companies with "real value" will quickly rise to the top once that happens and Probe is meeting every criterion for that
Quick questions and even quicker answers. I came away well impressed and much more happy again about my investment in the company.FANTOMAS