Combination of Open-Pit and UG - Eureka!
posted on
Jun 12, 2014 04:39AM
I think I have unearthed the secret of the NR. Note this is just my speculation which involved a bit of guesswork.
Here goes the theory (conspiracy or otherwise):
1. The emphasis is an UG operation, but there is a method to combine a smaller pit with a UG as described in a paper, abstract below. A full paper can be purchased online, but I did not have my credit card handy, lol. It's an interesting short reading, Whittle model and all. The key phrase is underlined in the summary below.
2. So, PRB needs to dig a hole (the open-pit), but just big enough to accomodate a ramp down to the HGZ. This small open-pit can be optimized using the Whittle pit shell optimization process, "ad nauseam", to dove-tail the pit with the UG. You can let your imagination run wild with many options:
- First, make it small, leaving ~3 Moz of the old LGZ discovery of 4.3 Moz behind for later development (Jennings had this information, presumably after talking with Dave). The 4.3Moz is intact. It's still there, it has not vanished, just a small portion is "re-distributed" to the HGZ, the rest (only ~3 Moz) is outside the shell. Reference: the image of the pit, link in NR, and note the general/cryptic remarks in the paragraph just below that link. Not sure, if this is deliberate, but it's as clear as mud for casual readers.
- The Whittle model could be used to "whittled away" the low grade ounces (look at the large red blobs that are left outside the new pit shell (it's quite interesting reading Jennings explanation, something like "unreachable"? My interpretation is that, the 3 Moz is left behind intentionally/deliberately by playing with Whittle model for the optimization purpose of a combined operation.
- Whittle model can also be used to "steer" the pit toward the high grade zones within the LGZ zone to maximize the grades during this combined open-pit UG operation.
- Whittle model can be used to "steer" the operation away from the JV zone and the "contested" areas (e.g. the wedge). Would that help the negotiation with the forestry people?
The possibilities are endless. All we need now is for someone to come out and admit his game plan which has been up his sleeve all along. And that would be something to write home about.
In summary, the total resource as a result of this fancy footwork (if explained clearly) is still in the range 7-8Moz, taking into account ~3 Moz " whittled away", i.e. left outside the new pit for future consideration, when the POG improves.
goldhunter
-------------------- AUSIMM paper, Abstract-------------------
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Society / Organization | AUSIMM | ||
Summary / Abstract | Mining One (M1) is often challenged with the task of evaluating deposits considering open cut and/or underground (UG) mining methods. In many near surface deposits a combination of both methods results in the optimum economic means of exploitation. As common as it is to have open pit mines eventually develop into underground mines, theory associated with determining the optimum underground/open pit interface location continues to be subject to refinement. With recent developments in underground software packages, the generation of rudimentary underground mining stopes from basic economic inputs is not only fast, it provides a practical underground mining solution. The determination of the open pit/underground interface is not new to Gemcom's Whittle 4X (Whittle). However, its solution has only ever claimed to be indicative, mainly due the rudimentary nature of how Whittle represents any potential underground mining. The efficient generation of the aforementioned underground mining solution has provided mining engineers with a unique opportunity. Underground mining can now be represented within the Whittle environment to allow the open pit/underground mining scenario to be modelled with increased accuracy (underlined mine). Providing Whittle with the ability to now consider mineable underground stopes combined with the consideration of time value of money (discounting), has delivered a solution with higher credibility than ever before.This paper will elaborate on the potential value gains associated with improved accuracies in the modelling of any potential underground mining in the Whittle environment. Furthermore, it will explain the importance of incorporating time value of money in the optimisation process to provide a consistent solution through to pit selection and final analysis. |