Timmins & Beardmore - Northern Ontario

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Message: Head faking by the Majors

Head faking by the Majors

posted on Oct 19, 2008 06:34PM

A post from another site ... FWIW





Lots of head faking going on by majors interested in buying dirt-cheap junior gold drill plays -- a good sign for us shareholders, who are feeling dirt-poor.

Remember the Bloomberg Goldcorp interview of Sept. 10?

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...

Now, we have the Bloomberg AEM interview of Oct. 17.

http://www.bloomberg.com/apps/news?p...

In both cases, high ranking officials of major gold producers are posturing for the press regarding the likelihood or non-likelihood of them acquiring juniors, and the timing. Goldcorp comes right out and says it is in the market for juniors, in the Sept. 11 interview.

Agnico-Eagle tries to play a cagier game on Oct. 17, saying that it will just wait for the drill plays to go bankrupt....

"There is another ``leg down'' for shares of so-called junior miners, which rely on external financing to develop their first projects or to fund the search for new metal deposits, Agnico Chief Financial Officer David Garofalo said yesterday in a telephone interview. Agnico will wait for those stocks to drop before making any acquisitions, he said.

"'We haven't seen the bankruptcies in the junior market, but those are inevitable,' Garofalo said from the company's headquarters in Toronto. ``There's no need to rush after opportunities, because the valuations will come down again.''

Against these HEAD-FAKES we have the background: actual deals already occurring in the cheapo environment: kinross buying aurelian, goldcorp buying gold eagle.

My take: Many of the junior stock companies that Goldcorp and AEM and other majors want are already ridiculously cheap. A company with cash flow like AEM or G.TO does not have to wait.

Plus AEM knows that some of the better deals out there are cashed-up ~ such as Kodiak Exploration KXL and Premier Gold PG.

Now juxtapose the AEM cfo's words with the cash position and discover position of KXL: Nearly $40 mm in the bank, able to drill and assay and manage without letup well into 2010 without refinancing, coming up with amazing gold results left and right on multiple targets in an extremely mining friendly province.

And even some of the weaker sisters, if they have good gold showings, are proving they still have the ability to finance. Living proof: Sage Gold SGX is raising a $2-3 million starting last week. Better proof: Clifton Star CFO just came up with enough to make its last fat $10 million land payment to the vendor for its Quebec properties, plus enough to drill well into 09.

So maybe AEM is right about waiting around for the bankruptcy papers on some juniors, but I doubt the ones who have good showings in good districts are going to close their doors for lack of money.

Certainly, the AEM comments made me feel fortunate about the specs i have chosen to go heaviest in: KXL, PG, CSI.

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