When backwardation does occur in a futures market it has been suggested that an individual in the short position would benefit the most by delivering as late as possible.

Backwardation in futures contracts was called "normal backwardation" by economist John Maynard Keynes. This is because he believed that a price movement like the one suggested by backwardation was not random but consistent with the prevailing market conditions.

With gold near all-time highs and silver approaching multi-decade highs, today King World News interviewed James Turk out of London. When asked about silver specifically Turk stated, “We’re now at a record backwardation in silver in terms of length of time. I think what we need to do is compare what is happening now to 2009 when silver was in backwardation the last time. Over a period of just about two months silver rose 40% from approximately $10 to $14, and that rise in price eliminated the backwardation.”

April 1, 2011

James Turk continues:

“But here is the really stunning thing this time Eric, we’ve gone from $27 to over $37, again about a 40% rise in price and the backwardation is still there. It hasn’t disappeared. So what that suggests to me is that there is tremendous physical demand for silver. This is a very, very rare event and it’s very bullish.

I don’t remember ever seeing anything like this before and this has real implications for the dollar because one of the other interviews that we did a while back I was saying if silver stays in a prolonged period of backwardation, what we really have to watch for is if gold goes into backwardation. Because if gold goes into backwardation then it’s all over for the dollar.

That’s a flight out of fiat currency and a flight into precious metals. And the fact that we’ve got silver at a record length in terms of backwardation, and even though the price has risen as much as it has, we’re still in backwardation. It’s really stunning.

Maybe the backwardation will disappear at 40 bucks, but who knows? Maybe the backwardation is still going to be there at $45 or $50 which is the target that I’ve been looking for this year. If that happens, it’s impossible to predict, but if that happens that’s going to be an earthshaking event.”

In my opinion this is one of the most powerful interviews I have ever done with James Turk where he covered a pending explosion in gold, record backwardation in silver, a mining share blast off and the collapse of the US dollar.