Re: my 5g estimation
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 18, 2011 03:04PM
Keep in mind, the opinions on this site are for the most part speculation and are not necessarily the opinions of the company WITHOUT PREJUDICE
$3.5B is not a drop in the bucket for anyone, no matter how deep their pockets are. If you're going to propose spending $3.5B on anything, you'd better have a pretty bullet-proof proposal, no matter how rich your company or your country is, otherwise you will indeed be laughed right out of your job.
The reason behind the math is to understand the potential of what you're invested in. Otherwise how else does anyone know how valuable their investment might be? If it wasn't for the math and the Quantec and the DD, the Tesoro would be as plain and boring as all the other hundreds of juniors out there, like trying to decide what to pick to eat from the buffet.
There is no institutional following because there is no proof yet. Institutions are like sheep, they follow the crowd, and they don't take big risks. When they see others piling on, they follow suit. Without drill results, the Tesoro is still a risk. So when I think of it that way, no, I don't think it's odd that there is no institutional holding yet, but I strongly suspect there are many institutions that have their entry strategy ready to go at the click of a mouse.
Agree that good drill results alone will not propel the sp to the ultimate projections mentioned. But I do think good results will propel the sp higher, as we saw with Ventana, and Ventana had some pretty impressive grades. The market always decides, and that includes the effects of any manipulation that may or may not be going on. The sp may even go down as part of a "sell on news" reaction, like what we saw after the permit announcement. Be prepared for anything.
The biggest guarantee of a dramatic rise in sp will be a buyout offer, and that's what we're all hoping for, if we get the good drill results. Disagree that the Tesoro would have to be completely drilled before offers come to the table. If the grades are good, the Quantec surveys could be extrapolated to project the resource without more drilling.