For what it's worth, here's my view on it.

The US will do a debt ceiling deal at the 11th hour. Until then, and as the politicians play their games, the POG will rise during the early part of this week. When they announce a deal, even a short term bridging deal, the POG will have a sudden drop. I don't think the drop would be very significant in that it wont go below $1450 / oz but it would cause a drop sector wide drop in gold equities. I would guess that that will be the day you see the shorters make a hard push against out SP.