Hey Hog,
I think your rationale creates a reasonable hypothesis based on the information you referenced, the only thing I would add to ensure expectations are tempered throughout the community is that your timelines do not make reference to how typical unforseen operational delays can and do happen...these types of delays can add days, weeks and even months to a program this intensive and complex.
I am referring to simple things like mechanical issues, transportation delays and breakdowns, third party backlogs, illness to key players, procedural red tape, political red tape, etc.
I'm not suggesting that these are ACTUALLY taking place, I am just suggesting that when those who read this forum and see timelines that are broken down into days... they should consider what all businesses consider... delays caused by nothing more than "doing business"
Just one man's opinion,
S.