Mark,

I don't think one could fairly represent the market by using those numbers. Even though there is a 150%-250% premium on organic poultry, it isn't that simple, for several reasons.

1) Even though the market for organic products has tripled in the last couple of years, not everyone is going to be willing (or able) to pay that premium. As the cost of corn and other grains continue to rise, the cost of meat and other food is also increasing. "Organic meat for everyone" is probably out of the question. We are lucky to get "a chicken in every pot".

2) The cost of raising "Certified Orgainic meat" includes a lot of factors. The land on which the chickens are raised must be free of pesticides and any other material that would disqualify it as organic. This has to be true for several years preceeding Organic certification. There can be no other non-organics either. That means no ionophores as coccidiostats. (Remember the Tyson controversy?) It also means that the feed must all be organically grown. No chemical fertilizers or pesticides. There must be no therapeutic antibiotics, either. So if the birds get sick and truly need to be treated, they disqualify as organic. The list goes on. It is very expensive and labor intensive to raise organic poultry.

3) The largest poultry processor in the US cannot suddenly make this kind of change in its business model. Think about the amount of time it is taking to get Agrastim to be commercially accepted. (Groan.) That is just one tiny portion of the bigger picture. It is difficult to effect change. Imagine trying to convince a company that processes 45 million chickens a week that they should "go organic". It ain't gonna happen.

I would suggest that where the change will take place is with the elimination of antibiotics as growth promoters. Tyson is taking the lead on this, with their chicken "raised without drugs that cause antibiotic-resistance", label. I believe you will see more and more of this in the next year or so. There is great consumer demand for this product.

As soon as we are out of the election cycle, and politicians get back to government work, I believe you will begin hearing a lot more about legislation to ban antibiotics as growth promoters. It is only a matter of time before the US adopts the same guidelines that have been enacted in Japan, the EU and Australia.

The real issue here is not trying to get a big processor to change anything because it is a good idea. The real point is that it makes economic sense in that it increases feed conversion and therfore helps control skyrocketing feed costs. When you add the other benefits, you are looking at erasing losses and seeing profits, with all other factors remaining the same. That should be an easier sell than "Organic".

-zties