Re: I Think An Apology is in Order - Jeff -- Zties
in response to
by
posted on
May 24, 2008 07:33PM
Geoff,
I appreciate your reply. Much that you have said is obviously irrefutable - particularly as regards our partner in BIOAGRA and how it relates to our current financials.
There is no question that sales are critical to the Company and an increase in sales would be a positive sign. You'll get no argument from me on that point. I believe there is a very good explanation.
You mentioned "full disclosure" - I would point to the most recent press release that disclosed the fact that Agrastim is being used by the largest duck producer in the US, two all-natural chicken producers, and that Rockingham Coop in Virginia has begun distributing the product. This is just the beginning, in my opinion. The 35+ companies testing the product were pretty much ignored in any follow-up discussion of the press release.
I have a completely different understanding of the timeframe required to achieve market penetration than I had two years ago, or even a year ago. As much as we'd like to have believed our partners, you don't just waltz into the front office at Pilgrims’ Pride or Tyson, show them a sample of your product and expect them to place a multi-million dollar order. It can take three months - or even much longer - to even get an appointment to see anybody in the big poultry companies. There are frequently many others in line ahead of you. That first meeting is a success if you merely identify the decision makers and influencers of those decisions - both within the company, as well as from outside the company.
These influencers include vets, researchers, nutritionists, University personnel OUTSIDE the company, and Vets, Nutritionists, Grow-out Managers and Financial analysts within the company. Scheduling and conducting meetings with these people can take 3-6 more months and MAY result in the next phase of the process - THE TRIAL.
The TRIAL is conducted at the expense of the manufacturer. (That is a portion of BIOAGRA's expenses.) This is the process that every prospect will subject a potential new product to - especially if there is significant cost and benefit associated with the product. The inside influencers will “sign off” - and by their review endorse the steps toward the trial. Many of the influencers may have participated in research trials to validate the product claims such as what Colorado Research Center recently did with turkeys (this was in the aforementioned press release). Some companies may have fewer decision influencers whose approval is required - so the time line is short. In other companies (usually the largest ones) there are more influencers whose approval is required and the time lines are longer.
It is expected by the prospect that the product manufacturer has already proven its own product in university and research trials - as well as real field trials - under conditions somewhat similar to those of the potential customer. In most cases, the prospect still believes its own specific conditions are unique.
The trial usually lasts from 5 weeks to eight months based on the type of trial and animal group involved. Once a commitment has been made to the trial, it may take another three months to get the Agrastim trial into the schedule. Trials in the breeder or turkey market could require up to six months. The sense of urgency and need could influence how quickly the prospect moves. If the product has potential benefits that match their immediate needs, the prospect may allow need to facilitate a faster trial period start-up. (This is why I consistently bring up market conditions that point to the current crisis in the US poultry market. It is my opinion that they need our product urgently - because of the trend away from antibiotics, but even more so because of the economic benefits of increased feed conversion. The cost of corn is creating big financial losses for the producers of almost all food animals. The poultry industry is in crisis mode.)
Analysis of the data may then take 2-4 additional weeks.
Sometimes, if the results are either better or worse than expected, or if the company wants further verification, the trial may be repeated. Repeat of a broiler trial can add 8-12 weeks. Longer trials, like turkey and breeder stock, are usually repeated at the expense of the potential customer, though they may get a price break on the AGRASTIM used in the trial.
The customer will rarely expand to immediate full use of any new product. They will expand slowly at first. This is especially true of expensive products - like AGRASTIM - even with the knowledge that there are significant economic benefits to full use. Full adoption of a new product can take anywhere from 3 months to 1 year.
Some customers will use the new product throughout their system with all their animals every day. Some may use it throughout their system with all their animals - but not every day - based on their own disease and management control criteria. Others may use it seasonally, or only in certain parts of their business. As the benefits of Agrastim are realized, it is my opinion that usage will grow to its full potential of between 70-100% adoption over a time frame of nine months to 1.5 years - based on the customer type and structure of its company.
So....Early Phase use would take about one year after the first call takes place. Longer Phase would be about 1.5 years after the first call takes place.
Although some companies like dairy, beef, equine companies and some of the larger poultry integrators could move more quickly, these are the norms. It is my opinion that the cycle will continue to improve as Agrastim is in the market longer and is more widely accepted.We have been in TRIAL stage for a great period of time. Results of several trials have been published and the independent trial results conducted by BIOAGRA are available on their website. Maple Leaf Duck Farms has begun implementing product in their breeding stock and now is testing it with their production animals. There are other companies, in my opinion, that are on the verge of following suit. There is NO QUESTION the product works, or they wouldn't be using it. BUT, no product is adopted into full use without going through the process outlined above.
As everyone knows from the press release, at least 35 companies have the product in various stages of trial. This, in the grand scheme of things, is an amazing accomplishment in the current market environment. The more I know about the product and the market we are trying to penetrate, the more encouraged I am by the progress.
Product has been given away. That is a necessary part of the initial trial process. NO poultry integrator buys product for trials. Product sales have taken place with customers like Maple Leaf and several ALL-Natural chicken producers. BUT, more importantly, trials are ongoing, results are forthcoming, and sales continue - though irregularly.
It is my belief that a number of these trials, when completed, will produce sales, and that initial use of the product will grow into full adoption of AGRASTIM as a replacement for antibiotics. The market potential is tremendous and amounts to hundreds of millions of dollars. Based on the timeframe above, I believe a number of the trials in progress will be concluded and results obtained in the next 60 days. I look for sales to begin coming in on a regular basis over the next 60-120 days.
You can say what you will about Arizcan and ongoing financing, but the truth is that the doors must be kept open and the lights kept on. Much of the product is going into the finishing up of trials. Without the significant high risk investment capital that comes in from "The Friends of Vyta Corp" the product would not be sent out for all the companies to conduct trials, there would be no University Studies confirming the claims of AGRASTIM, and there would be no aggressive marketing program.
It's unfortunate, in my opinion that you no longer choose to get reports from Paul. He may have been wildly optimistic in the past, based on what - in hindsight - were probably unreasonable expectations. Unfortunately, I believe, some of the original information he received was not completely accurate. I believe if you were to call now, you would find him still exuding confidence in our pending success, but there are a lot more research results and trial data that justify his confidence.
I, too, believe in our pending success. If one were to judge this company by the 10Q alone, there would not be much to get excited about. BUT, knowing what I do about the poultry market today, the irrefutable evidence that AGRASTIM works, and the current trials that will shortly be concluded, I am almost "wildly optimistic" myself about the potential. I still believe BIOAGRA will be able to sell all the AGRASTIM it can produce. I just have a more realistic timeframe now that I have a better understanding of the market.
Best regards,
-zties