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Message: Potentials (lots of numbers in this post)

Potentials (lots of numbers in this post)

posted on Nov 29, 2005 11:29AM
I am going to make some assumptions along with some established figures.

I will work with:

- NPCT outstanding fully dilluted to 200 million (authorized)

- Arizcan owning 60% of the resulting company

- two reverse split ratios; 1:10 1:20

- conjectures of BioAgra revenue at $100/kilo and $200/kilo

- production lines at 10,000 kilos to 15,000 kilos/month

- conservative P/E of 20

- assumption BioAgra has demand for full production sales

- 50% margin for BioAgra

- $100,000/month NPCT burn rate (expenses of $1.2 mil/year)

- these numbers are simple to demonstrate potential only

I am trying to mix worse case scenarios with luke warm potentials.

The figures below are anticipated for the calendar year 2006.

My bottom line concern is resulting potential share price which I will give post and pre r/s.

So, the numbers.

Assume fully dilluted 200 million shares:

r/s 1:10 - 20 million shares resulting

r/s 1:20 - 10 million shares resulting

Arizcan 60% ownership resulting company:

r/s 1:10 - NPCT + Arizcan -> 50 million shares outstanding

r/s 1:20 - NPCT + Arizcan -> 25 million shares outstanding

Consider 1 production line of BioAgra which has been stated to produce 10,000 kilos per month to 15,000 kilos per month.

$100/kilo

10,000 kilo/month -> $1 million/month, $12 mil/year revenue, 50% margin -> $6 mil/year earning for BioAgra

15,000 kilo/month -> $1.5 million/month, $18 mil/year, revenue 50% margin -> $9 mil/year earning for BioAgra

$200/kilo

10,000 kilo/month -> $24 million/year revenue, 50% margin -> $12 mil/year earning for BioAgra

15,000 kilo/month -> $36 million/year revenue, 50% margin -> $18 mil/year earning for BioAgra

50% dividend for NPCT (revenue for NPCT)

$6 mil/year BioAgra earnings 50% -> $3 mil/year

$18 mil/year BioAgra earnings 50% -> $9 mil/year

NPCT Earnings (Revenue less expenses)

$3 mil/year to $9 mil/year less expenses of $1.2 mil/year->

$1.8 mil/year earning to $7.8 mil/year earning

For share price to earnings; divide earnings by outstanding. For end share price multiply P/E ratio.

1:10 r/s

$1.8 mil/year earning divided by 50 million -> .036/share times 20 P/E -> .72 per share

$7.8 mil/year earning divided by 50 million -> .156/share times 20 P/E -> $3.12 per share

1:20 r/s

$1.8 mil/year earnings divided by 25 million -> .072/share times 20 P/E -> $1.44 per share

$7.8 mil/year earning divided by 25 million -> .312/share times 20 P/E -> $6.24 per share

Using figures above luke warm resulting share price post reverse ranges from:

.72 to $6.24

Or pre reverse ranging from (divide by 20 keeping Arizcan shares in calculations):

.036 to .312 per share

Now, as we all know there are a lot of other factors influencing the share price.

- The above figures were using one production line. The facilities zties and I visitted can handle four production lines. There may be two production lines in operation in 2006.

- The above figures are using 50% margin. Margins could be better. They could be lower.

- Price per Kilo could be higher. I doubt the per kilo price will be $100 or lower but present it as a worse case.

- The P/E can be far higher. In some cases I have seen it in the 100s. I look for P/E of 20 to 80.

Frankly, I look for the higher share price influenced by a higher P/E, higher revenue, better margins.

Time will tell.

Kent

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