Potentials (lots of numbers in this post)
posted on
Nov 29, 2005 11:29AM
I will work with:
- NPCT outstanding fully dilluted to 200 million (authorized)
- Arizcan owning 60% of the resulting company
- two reverse split ratios; 1:10 1:20
- conjectures of BioAgra revenue at $100/kilo and $200/kilo
- production lines at 10,000 kilos to 15,000 kilos/month
- conservative P/E of 20
- assumption BioAgra has demand for full production sales
- 50% margin for BioAgra
- $100,000/month NPCT burn rate (expenses of $1.2 mil/year)
- these numbers are simple to demonstrate potential only
I am trying to mix worse case scenarios with luke warm potentials.
The figures below are anticipated for the calendar year 2006.
My bottom line concern is resulting potential share price which I will give post and pre r/s.
So, the numbers.
Assume fully dilluted 200 million shares:
r/s 1:10 - 20 million shares resulting
r/s 1:20 - 10 million shares resulting
Arizcan 60% ownership resulting company:
r/s 1:10 - NPCT + Arizcan -> 50 million shares outstanding
r/s 1:20 - NPCT + Arizcan -> 25 million shares outstanding
Consider 1 production line of BioAgra which has been stated to produce 10,000 kilos per month to 15,000 kilos per month.
$100/kilo
10,000 kilo/month -> $1 million/month, $12 mil/year revenue, 50% margin -> $6 mil/year earning for BioAgra
15,000 kilo/month -> $1.5 million/month, $18 mil/year, revenue 50% margin -> $9 mil/year earning for BioAgra
$200/kilo
10,000 kilo/month -> $24 million/year revenue, 50% margin -> $12 mil/year earning for BioAgra
15,000 kilo/month -> $36 million/year revenue, 50% margin -> $18 mil/year earning for BioAgra
50% dividend for NPCT (revenue for NPCT)
$6 mil/year BioAgra earnings 50% -> $3 mil/year
$18 mil/year BioAgra earnings 50% -> $9 mil/year
NPCT Earnings (Revenue less expenses)
$3 mil/year to $9 mil/year less expenses of $1.2 mil/year->
$1.8 mil/year earning to $7.8 mil/year earning
For share price to earnings; divide earnings by outstanding. For end share price multiply P/E ratio.
1:10 r/s
$1.8 mil/year earning divided by 50 million -> .036/share times 20 P/E -> .72 per share
$7.8 mil/year earning divided by 50 million -> .156/share times 20 P/E -> $3.12 per share
1:20 r/s
$1.8 mil/year earnings divided by 25 million -> .072/share times 20 P/E -> $1.44 per share
$7.8 mil/year earning divided by 25 million -> .312/share times 20 P/E -> $6.24 per share
Using figures above luke warm resulting share price post reverse ranges from:
.72 to $6.24
Or pre reverse ranging from (divide by 20 keeping Arizcan shares in calculations):
.036 to .312 per share
Now, as we all know there are a lot of other factors influencing the share price.
- The above figures were using one production line. The facilities zties and I visitted can handle four production lines. There may be two production lines in operation in 2006.
- The above figures are using 50% margin. Margins could be better. They could be lower.
- Price per Kilo could be higher. I doubt the per kilo price will be $100 or lower but present it as a worse case.
- The P/E can be far higher. In some cases I have seen it in the 100s. I look for P/E of 20 to 80.
Frankly, I look for the higher share price influenced by a higher P/E, higher revenue, better margins.
Time will tell.
Kent