My argument gets further support from the fact that gold hasn't taken the anticipated moonshot in the face of the worst global credit/currency crisis since the 30's. So, what's everyone waiting for? I thought the markets were forward looking?

Not a flame but I would say that gold has in effect done what it is supposed to do. It is at an all time high in all currencies now except the US dollar. That in my opinion is most likely not safe haven buying but deleveraging and repatriation of dollars by US nationals. This has driven the yield of 30 year US bonds to historic lows. Who in their right mind would invest for 30 years at 2 1/2% when the US is printing money like crazy (Disclosure - I am short US 30 year treasuries - HTD).

I believe that gold initially sold off with everything else because it and oil were the only assets a lot of the hedge funds owned that could be easily sold to raise cash for redemptions. This combined with the fact that many people are expecting deflation has kept a cap on the price. I think that gold now that more people are realizing the US government will be ruining trillion dollar deficits for the foreseeable future is starting to get a whiff of inflation.

I do not expect a moon shot but a gradual increase in the price over the next few years with set backs along the way. In this environment I think the stocks will far out perform the price of bullion. The good companies are way off their highs and have improving fundamentals (Lower costs for fuel, labor and raw materials). The majors have already started to get back to better valuations. This will eventually spill down to the good mid-tiers and some of the juniors as well. Many of the lesser projects will go bust but there will be plenty of 10 baggers from these valuations as well.

jmho.