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Message: Re: What's the outlook for China ( on the way up )

Apr 02, 2009 07:18PM

It's been discussed here that China is diverifying out of treasury as discretely as possible and it's been reported on several occasions that they were intent on bying significantly more gold this year as stated by Xinhua state agency .

We also talked in lenght about China piling up commodities such as iron ore in harbourghs or building up facilities for oil reserve , it's been reported in several occasions how they were signing long term agreement with several countries such as Russia, Irak, Iran, Kasakstan Venezuela and others to supply them with oil or to build pipelines for oil and gas supply over the next years . They've made arrangments with Argentine Brasil Venezuela for and African as well as other Asian countries for supply in commodities over the next years .

They backed Chinalco in their bit for BHP , they've established strong ties with Australia and the list goes on and on for the last year or so .

And as his the case today we also talked widely about China' outspoken intention to raise gold reserve substantialy while advocating a change in the workings of world currency calling for a diversification from US Dollar as the international reserve . So as we can see China has been following a path of diversifying from the US dollar for quite some time already an it's actions are changing slowly bu inevitably the ways of the worl order . Their actions are underpinning the power of the US dollar and creating de facto a new world currency order in the making .

They also underscore the real currency value as being the commodities of this world that are so necessary as the worl population grows out of proportion ! Some day food and water as many warned over the last decade and more will become paramount to the development of countries and so China seems to see farther and act accordingly.

Once this crisis is over a few years from now we will see the yuan being appreciated significantly and the dollar down just as much at a time where China's industry will be one of the most prolific in the world and also one of the main exporter yet .

Then we will witness China supplanting the US as the major supper power and probably overtaking them in terms of GDP before the end of the next decade .

Once the economy recovers fully 4-5-6 or 7 years ahead then the US dollar might be worth 60 to 70% of what it's worth now and the Yuan's value will probably have at least doubled by that time , they will probably be the largest car makers in the world and will be advancing towards high tech products while still being the number one producer and exporter of everyday consumption products along with India .

What is happening now is not only the result of the last thee or four years of incompetence and greed but rather the result of a switch in capital , labor , industry and wealth in general from OECD countries towards Asia that started some thirty years ago along with the opening of markets trough worl trade agreements .

Large Capital was looking for a haven away from organised labor and it's now resulting in a major switch in wealth from OECD countries towards poorer countries .

Asia through China as benifited the most from capital investments and now some of the finest and most modern industries have been built by the most powerfull enterprises in the world or with their capital and they hire some of the chipest and some of the brightest and best educated labor in the world .

China had a plan to develop the wealth of China for the benefit of it's population since 1976 when Deng Xiaoping came to power overtaking it from the goons that ruled from 1966 to 1976 who in the end were known as the gang of four . The government od Deng slowly but surely rehabilitaed the intellectual in their rightfull place following the abominable abused they suffered under what is known as the cultural revolution ( 1966-76 ) and ever since they have been working towards making China more prosper and open .

All that has been done trough tremendouss efforts and sacrifices and some reknown mistakes as Tianamen is proof , but the strenght of that economic revolution comes from the hability of the government to question it's actions and motives regularly from top to bottom . As they become more prosperous and open to " democratic " influence and lobbying the challenge to keep an honest approach to help their population prosper will increase as well as corruption will grow with wealth .

But to this day it's the most impressive economic social and political success of the last 50 years in the world and the future of China remains full of promises . They must be looked upon by most poor countries and population on the planet with a mix of hope and envy let's hope our governments and so called leaders who are more interested in they own ambitions learn from what they see in China before the average worker here end up being the poor people of the world .

This crisis might be our last chance to react before we end up as part of the so called third world .

Tectol

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Apr 26, 2009 02:20PM

Apr 26, 2009 03:55PM
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