Re: Pole
in response to
by
posted on
Oct 21, 2007 08:17PM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
7% that the non FDN deposit properties get spun off (exploration properties are not usually valued in an acquistion but they are the 'extra' that the buyer wants/gets. No one is going to complicate an a multi-billion dollar acquistion over some properties with good potential. Whoever buys FDN will certainly explore them so keep the share you acquire for you ARU and you can benefit from the development of the properties if there is another elephant out there.
90% that it goes as a package. Everything management has done to date (who they hired into senior management, the number of companies that have access to all the data for FDN under confidentiality agreements, how they pushed forward with drilling off FDN over regional exploration etc) all point to prepping the company for sale.
3% that they do it themselves. ONLY if ARU doesn't feel it is getting value for the shareholders from potential suiters (that the short term polical risk is seen as being to risky) can I see them developing the property. Could they do it ... SURE. There is no doubt that they can hire/contract the talent to design, develop and operate a gold mine. Marketing the product is straight forward. BUT as far as I know ARU hasn't even expressed a desire to become a producer.
So ... wait for more results, the reserve calculation to get bigger and the Ecuadorians (?) to set their mining regulations and we will be off to the races with option 2 (unless someone can't wait anylonger and triggers the bidding war that is sure to occur).