CALLING ALL AUTHENTIC INVESTORS......
in response to
by
posted on
Jul 25, 2008 11:03AM
The company whose shareholders were better than its management
Unfortunately, I think Aurelian may have been at the crossroads.
With the political uncertainty in Ecuador, which will linger for a long time in the memories of investment bankers even after a favourable mining law, it will be very difficult for a junior to get financing. They just don't have the clout or the diversification. The investment banking divisions of the major banks would eat Aurelian for lunch, making huge demands or asking for significant equity. The wannabe investment banks and consultants would just lead them on a wild goose chase looking for funding.
Does Ecuador have no banks? Do they not have a State Mining Company? Can President Correa not direct the nation's finances where they're most needed? Is Ecuador's financial position that bad with today's price of oil? So, who needs Bay St? Que les vayan bonito!
The PP with Kinross could just as well have gone to Ecuador's pension fund as a sweetner in exchange for an open line of credit to build a mine, and later expand the entire mining district with ARU as lead company. How much do you think ARU would be worth in 5-10 years under that scenario?
Where are the long term strategists in all of this? Where are the AUTHENTIC INVESTORS? Mr Barron, are YOU on board? How about Canada Pension Plan? Jim Puplava, could you step up and be counted, please?
It's a tough time for juniors right now, no matter which metal or mineral they are involved with and share prices are taking a beating across the board. This would make it even harder to go ahead. Aurelian has very good management and it probably became obvious that a junior couldn't go it alone. The downside risk would be a major picking up FDN from the receiver, so it would be better to go ahead with a deal.
You don't do stinky deals in a bear market when you're cashed up and have a world class discovery in a nation that welcomes your participation in their historic transition from Banana Republic to Genuine Democracy. You ride it out with them, make helpful contributions, provide a base for future development and encouragement to their capital markets. You provide jobs, training, scholarships and help them build an industry they can be proud of. In short, you get involved to the point people name their kids after you.
Revolution is kicking in a rotten door, and this door was as rotten as they get. Ask any Ecuadorean. They voted for change, and now that they've got it we're going to abandon them? Just as we're in the final stretch, with most of the risk behind us? It makes no sense. It's not just insulting to the shareholders, it's insulting to the people of Ecuador.
What does President Correa think of all this? Has anyone asked him?
In time, the combination with Kinross may prove to be a favourable one for shareholders. Kinross has the expertise with high-risk political situations in other jurisdictions and could possibly stick-handle the situation in Ecuador. Its share price has risen nicely over the last few years, doing very well. The exercise price on the warrants, though, is unfortunate.
I see no long term advantage to doing any deal with any company whatsoever. None. All it does is dilute us, or hand us a bag of cash we'll be hard pressed to invest elsewhere with the same potential we already have right here. We're a flagship company in a nation with excellent geology that wants a modern mining industry. Take them at their word and work with them. This is the stuff opportunity, if not dreams are made of.
So I'll say it again.
Where are the AUTHENTIC INVESTORS?
ebear