All in my opinion, please do your own DD. This is not investment advice.

I guess the trade has been sell aru and buy k... the reverse of the tradtional m&a arb but that probably speaks volumes to how crap of a deal it is.

logically though it makes sense. when gold dropped the producers all shed 25+% of their value. the fractional warrant becomes exponentially worse as K comes down. so you sell aru and buy k, locking in the premium associated with the fractional warrant and the possibilty of another bid. best part is k gets a huge one time investment gain if they get out bid or k gets to steal the best project found in 30years... k is a winner either way.

question is, who took the other side of the aru sell / k buy trade? we have a few new posters but the board isn't over run by new retail investors. my conclusion is some new hedge funds are in the mix... we shall see soon as if they took the other side of the trade, they didn't do it to tender.

my guess is that K doesn't get more than 40% this time around...