Re: Jurek's calculations
in response to
by
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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Message: Jurek's calculations
My calculations (below) support Jurek's assertion that the CF/share increases by 2 cents for every $10 increase in WTIC.
|
Conacher QTY Cash Flow
|
||||||
|
Days / Month
|
31
|
29
|
31
|
30
|
31
|
30
|
|
Days / Quarter
|
|
|
91
|
|
|
91
|
|
Avg WTIC Price / barrel
|
|
|
97.50
|
|
|
120.00
|
|
% Dilbent price / WTIC
|
|
|
79%
|
|
|
80%
|
|
DilBit
|
BPD
|
$ / B
|
$MM
|
BPD
|
$ / B
|
$MM
|
|
Diluent / Bitumen ratio
|
37.6%
|
|
|
37.6%
|
|
|
|
Dilbit
|
2,440
|
77.24
|
17.150
|
11,008
|
96.00
|
96.166
|
|
Diluent
|
-667
|
133.50
|
-8.103
|
-3,008
|
144.00
|
-39.417
|
|
Transportation
|
|
-2.22
|
-0.494
|
|
-2.22
|
-2.224
|
|
Bitumen
|
1,773
|
53.01
|
8.553
|
8,000
|
74.90
|
54.525
|
|
Royalties
|
|
0.53
|
0.086
|
|
0.50
|
0.364
|
|
Operating Costs
|
|
21.09
|
3.403
|
|
15.00
|
10.920
|
|
Netback
|
1,773
|
31.39
|
5.064
|
8,000
|
59.40
|
43.241
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Conventional Oil
|
996
|
79.50
|
7.206
|
996
|
96.00
|
8.701
|
|
Royalties
|
|
-20.03
|
-1.815
|
|
-20.03
|
-1.815
|
|
Operating Costs
|
|
-11.70
|
-1.060
|
|
-11.70
|
-1.060
|
|
Netback
|
996
|
47.78
|
4.331
|
996
|
64.28
|
5.826
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Natural gas
|
10,493
|
6.95
|
6.633
|
14,000
|
6.95
|
8.850
|
|
Royalties
|
|
-1.22
|
-1.162
|
|
-1.22
|
-1.550
|
|
Operating Costs
|
|
-1.49
|
-1.426
|
|
-1.49
|
-1.903
|
|
Netback
|
10,493
|
4.24
|
4.045
|
14,000
|
4.24
|
5.397
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Total Netback
|
|
|
13.440
|
|
|
54.464
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Refinery margin
|
7,902
|
99.99
|
71.899
|
10,000
|
100.00
|
91.000
|
|
|
|
-99.28
|
-71.393
|
|
-95.00
|
-86.450
|
|
|
7,902
|
0.70
|
0.506
|
10,000
|
5.00
|
4.550
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
|
Operating Cash Flow
|
|
|
13.946
|
|
|
59.014
|
|
Interest Income
|
|
|
0.831
|
|
|
0.831
|
|
G & A
|
|
|
-3.066
|
|
|
-3.066
|
|
Finance Costs
|
|
|
-4.431
|
|
|
-4.431
|
|
Add back non cash finance charges
|
||||||
|
Add back future employee benefits
|
||||||
|
Income Tax provision
|
|
|
1.346
|
|
|
1.346
|
|
Add back future tax provision
|
|
|
-2.163
|
|
|
-2.163
|
|
|
|
|
7.825
|
|
|
52.893
|
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