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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Jurek's calculations

Here's an easier to read version of my calcs. I have taken the Q1 CF details and estimated the Q2 CF results. The cells in yellow are changes from Q1 (EG Avg WTIC changed fro 97.5 to 120). The resulting operating CF in Q2 is approx 50 MM. I have left the items after Operating CF the same as Q1 - but I'm sure they'll change. Some key assumptions are the % dilbit price / wtic (I use 80%), the Diluent / Bitument ratio (37.6 % implied from Q1 numbers), and the price of diluent (133.5 again implied from Q1 numbers). I asumme the cost of diluent goes up in tandem with the increase in wtic. If I change the 120 wtic to 130 the Quarterly CF changes by 2 cents / share or 8 cents on an annual basis. For Q3 & 4 this increases as the production increase.

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