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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Jurek's calculations

Thank you Jurek and Cornergas for doing the detailed work with regards to price sensitivity with regards to Connacher's cash flow in relation to a $10 price increase in WTI.

Jurek initially reported a 1 cent per share impact which I thought was low by a factor of 2 - 3 based on a very simple calculation using the ratio of price for bitumen to wti which I thought was probably between .6 to .8. Cornergas, using a much more sophisticated analysis than mine, gives a number that would translate to about .55 for this ratio, giving the impact of 2 cents per share which is probably close to being correct for the current market situation.

Even if you take Jurek's as the best estimate the impact is significant. At a 10 to 1 ratio of sp to cash flow, even the low impact case should increase the share price about 40 cents per $10 increase in the price of WTI.

Martin

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