Re: Random Connacher stuff..
in response to
by
posted on
Jun 13, 2008 10:23PM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
"Point 2: I have theorized that CLL has been held down by a deep pocketed player who floods the market whenver thete is a hint of SP momentum."
I know that a lot of investors often talk about this, but this concept really doesn't make any sense. Let's again use a scenario to show this:
Let's say I'm a deep pocketed fund manager and i own a lot of connacher. In fact, let's say I am the largest shareholder who owns less than 8% of the company (real life). To buy this heavily into one company, I would have to believe that I am going to see reasonable returns within my investment timeframe. So tell me then, why would I want to sell parts of my stake in this investment as a means to keep the SP lower? To make the price lower so that others can buy shares at a cheaper price? Or so that I can lower the sp by selling my shares, only to have to buy them back again... sell it down to 4.60 then have to buy everything in sight back up to 4.70 just to hold what I initially had? But i thought I was holding my shares to see the SP climb?
Brian said that the big guys wil sell large blocks to drop the price as a means of scaring the weak hands out of their shares, which the MM's in turn pick up. I agree that this happens, but is it really manipulation? Who's to say that there aren't going to be buyers for every one of those shares at market price? In that case the MM's would be out of their shares at market value, and they would not be able to buy any on the cheap. This buyer wuld also be deep pocketed, some one who wants in. This is what happened a couple of months ago with Credit Suisse, and is what initiall started this run. So it was the houses and individuals alike who got taken by CS while hoping to sell and buy back lower. That is not a risk that many reputable managers are willing to take. Either way it is a game of psychology , and those who are long on the stock should not fret on those who may fall victims to these 10 cent swings. It makes our shareholder base stronger. as for the drop to $3, that was everyone looking to get out based on fears of complications during pod 1 ramp-up. Imagine my previous post re: valuation if pod 1 could not generate cashflow. Cll would be worth much less than $3 if this were to have happened. Truth is, the average investor has no idea what his holings are actually worth, and is emotionally affected my what the market values them at. On the days when it is way down they assume something must be wrong, and on the up days they figure news must be pending. Taking advantage of this and buying and selling accordingly is not manipulation, but smart business. It;s late and i'm tired and i'm really trying to make this simple for everyone. Hpe it makes some sense.
Solo