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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: Is it time for a share buyback?

Oct 27, 2008 03:24PM

RD,

Your idea (share buyback) would be good and stabilize the downward pressure on the CLL SP.

Unfortunately The CLL does not have the financial recourses to do this.

As you know (see Standard & Poor credit ratings report for CLL from Oct 10 or CLL corporate slide show) Connacher is generating negative free cash flow until Algar goes commercial.

I hope you can distinguish between the cash flow and free cash flow.

Their unrestricted cash of $208 million (reminder for the $600M loan) is not sufficient to construct the Algar and as per management they will use their line of credit ($187 M) to complete the project.

Additional $100M ($67M + $33M) is sitting in the restricted acct and waiting to be discharge as the interest payment for the loan holders. Yes ,we are paying the interest using the loan principal because we do not have the free cash flow.

At today Bitumen prices $32 to $33/bbl range CLL is in the short time surviving mode.

$21/bbl --upstream cost (operating cost)

Transport +Royalties---$5/bbl

Financial charges(Q2) --$16/bbl

Administrative cost --$4/bbl

We are still OK only because we pay the interest charges from the loan principal and not from the operational cash flow.

We need Algar to generate the free cash flow.





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Oct 28, 2008 12:10AM

Oct 29, 2008 04:58AM
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