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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: $50/barrel line in the sand
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Nov 14, 2008 05:14PM
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Nov 14, 2008 08:15PM

I think this statement is very clear...

"These concerns have been further exacerbated by indications that the Alberta Government intends to proceed with its proposed royalty increases, despite the sharp drop in energy prices. Also, large capital cost increases have been announced for integrated mining projects, originally incorporating an upgrader. Not surprisingly, this has received extensive commentary by financial analysts, resulting in considerable coverage in the popular and financial press. Unfortunately, this commentary often fails to distinguish between these megaprojects and our type of efficient smaller-scale modular SAGD projects, which exhibit lower per unit capital costs and greater efficiency. As a result, "breakeven" price requirements have been tossed about indiscriminately by the press and analysts, without an apparent recognition of the difference between project types and without regard to how companies or projects are financed. This has increased investor anxiety, even though when properly calculated this metric is always much lower for our type of operation. Based on recent exchange rates, heavy oil price differentials, diluent prices and blending ratios, break-even prices for combined Algar and Pod One operations would be less than US$50.00/bbl for WTI, assuming full production of 20,000 bbl/d, sufficient to cover interest on all our debt, bitumen operating costs, royalties, maintenance capital and G&A. Canadian and US election rhetoric about environment issues has also heightened investor concerns over the potential impact of possible new discriminatory taxation on oil sands operations. All of this, then, has not augured particularly well for our share price, even though we have done relatively well compared to our peers."

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