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Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta

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Message: Re: $50/barrel line in the sand
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Nov 14, 2008 05:14PM
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Nov 15, 2008 11:15PM
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Nov 16, 2008 03:27AM

In this uncertain economy one can only speculate on the price of oil.

Yes that also to me the most important for the next Q's to come but today I saw on our tv a doc. about the start of the crisis and the reaction from all countries all over.Conclusion is that we have now entered the recession and it will hold on for quite a while .

The financial approach is now some better and more worldwide acting (with latest G20 top ) is a first step in good direction .Most hurted is the housing sector and so far here prices has not dropped but we also started to see more and more unemployment is arriving specially in steel and automotive sector.Behavior of people in the US is coming over here too so we will fell later the crisis even more in time.

As I heard people are co,sidering almost everything they do in their normal acting and are taking steps to make life less expensieve on saving fuel,heating oil ,going restaurant ,buying clothing ,juwelery and more expensieve stuff .So as long this continious and the more people get fired it will not start to bring earnings up.People who have now money left can buy many things at cheap prices like houses and as long as there are enough to buy prices will stay low .Now goverments seem to focus on the spending side and will take steps to ensure that spending will not drop dramatingly .

There was also a fund manager who was specialized in short selling and told they never made so much money as it is since last months.So I think almost every run up will be countered for quite some time until there is evidence that recession reversed.So these guys will not thrown the towel in the ring very soon.

So not such pretty months ahead.What will oil price do?The chance to stay low is much higher then to go up IMO.

Let's hope it will average around 55 right now and if CLL can get the 10.000 bpd with lower SOR wouldn't be bad but also not that great.Hard to figure out what MRC will do as we see fuel prices coming down too.




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