Hi Jurek;
Thank you for providing the SOR numbers for JACOS. I will update my comparison for Monday.
Jurek, while you may be right that Connacher is buying natural gas for the Great Divide at a cost of $6 to $7 /mcf I think that it is impossible at present to figure out how much Connacher is selling its natural gas for (Luke production) in light of the article: "Getting It Done" in the September 9 edition of Oilweek. In this article Dick Gusella stated the following "And it [Connacher] supports its voracious SAGD energy needs with an intricate hedging program on its natural gas production , which averaged about 13 million cubic feet per day in the first quarter of this year."
On August 28th I posted a blog entitled
Forward sales contracts for part of Connacher's natural gas production? and I posed the question whether or not Connacher should lock in forward sales of its natural gas production for $7-8.00 mmcf/d of natural gas production as Fortress Energy had just done. The quote by Dick Gusella that I just posted seems to answer my suggestion in that it appears from the "Getting It Done" article that Connacher is already doing this. So I find it difficult to believe that Connacher would be selling its current natural gas production for the current NGX market price of $2.00 or less. I have no idea nor do I think any of us on the board can know what this "intricate hedging program is returning to Connacher at present. Any forward hedging program that Connacher put into place a few weeks or months ago would be paying them a lot more than $2.00 as the price of natural gas would have been a lot higher when the hedging deals were signed and nobody would hedge their production at a lot lower rate forward. I do not see in the Q2 Report anywhere the value of this "intricate hedging program". I doubt that the prices can be figured out by looking at the amount of money that Connacher gets for its natural gas from it's Q2 Report.
Has Connacher's natural gas production gone down since Connacher acquired Luke Energy by 30%? Or is this difficult to determine as well, since Connacher sold a number of its gas properties such as Tomkins, Saskatchewan; Steelman, Saskatchewan; after they purchased Luke Energy so they lost the natural gas production from these areas. Another factor to be considered is that Connacher has if I understand correctly 6 million cubic feet of natural gas behind pipe which they are ready to hook up but are holding back until the price for natural gas goes higher. So production of natural gas usually goes down about 25% a year if you don't keep drilling and replenishing this, however, if Connacher has drilled up the natural gas and is withholding it for strategic reasons (not to throw it away for $2.00 per mcf) while that may read as production down 20 or 30 % it is misleading as the gas has been drilled and is available = creative accounting.
In answer to where the $600 million dollar loan+ the $100 million dollar debentures+
the $200 million loan went: the money went to purchase the original oilsand leases and over time purchase more oilsands leases; $200 million dollars went to build the Great Divide Project; it went to drill 180 bitumen core holes over several winters as well as seizmic mapping to prove up oilsands reserves; another $345 million dollars is going for infrastructure and to build Algar........$65 million dollars went to purchase the MRC refinery and less than $200 million dollars went to purchase Luke Energy which has the ability to provide 50,000 mmcf/day of natural gas (recent presentation). To quote Dick Gusella again from "Getting It Done" The Company also has sufficient natural gas behind the pipe from its reserves at Marten Creek, Randall, Latornell, Gilby, and Three Hills to fuel its SAGD production expansions up to 50,000 barrels per day by 2015" unless this statement is just hype. In addition, Connacher has been paying $60 million dollars a year to service its loans in 2008 and will pay $100 million dollars in interest to service the loan for 2009.
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Best Wishes; Scott