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Message: Kondratiev Cycles.

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Sep 28, 2009 05:30PM

Hi Brian

Found this on the wave theory.So if we are indeed entered the spiral down then it can take a very long time until we move back up.Not pleasant to read that but I stated also once that I think the global stock markets will face the same as the Nikkei index.I hope I got it wrong but could be we as guys over the 50 years old we could have a very long beard until we see a new top appearing then the one we had sen past year.

So like you said saving some assets is not a bad idea .Maybe we should be pleased with a secure interest rate which is indeed very low but a little higher then the inflation rate instead of having a lot of money in stocks.

The big earnings for well known companies will be over for a long time so maybe small cap stocks could due some better.As for us if the oil pice remains at current level average CLL can have a support from that a due well .And for PDP with some muck to fix the well problem and drill a better one too it has something too to achive a better sp.

That's the only stocks I will hold on and for the rest keep the other money into more safe investments.They are not so attractive but at leat give some security without having the possibillity they could loose their value.

In 1925, Nikolai Kondratiev proposed that the world’s economy rises and falls in waves. His own work, and that of later commentators produces a schematic something like this:

Is there a case, then, that the worldwide recession is not so much a direct consequence of dubious banking practices, but rather something for which we were overdue anyway?

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