Re: My Positive View/sharky
in response to
by
posted on
Mar 29, 2010 11:46AM
Connacher is a growing exploration, development and production company with a focus on producing bitumen and expanding its in-situ oil sands projects located near Fort McMurray, Alberta
Are there also other juniors in the lift same way like CLL right now?/ Sharky
OPC (OPTI Canada) is up 5%. CLL is up 4%, STP is up 8%.
OPTI shareholders think (hope) that they will be the winners of this rumour run-up in share price. CLL holders hope that they are wrong.
Last time we had this rumour (2009) both companies issue massive amount of new shares. We know that the CLL management is seeking partnership to help the expansion. If they do not get anybody they will be forced to sell another 200 million shares.
Here it is one of the post from OPC board;
Very good point. I own CLL and OPC. I think that "if" long lake ramps up over the next 6 months though, OPC with a 35% interest in a 50,000 bpd long lake operation (i.e. about 17,500 + bpd net to OPC) is a more attractive.
Granted CLL has almost 500 million shares floating around, while OPC has 280 million or so, and granted both have long term debt (i.e. capitalized to start-up modest SAGD operations) and while CLL also owns the refinery in Montana, OPC has a relationship to NXY which is also a mid-tier oil exploration and production company. This doesn't mean CLL isn't taken out, it means that CLL will have about 20,000 bpd of production - roughly equal to OPC, but what makes OPC more attractive though is the "discount" factor it presently trades at. Though it doesn't appear that CLL has the reservoir problems that NXY/OPC are experiencing at long lake, if those problems are solved, look out above for both OPC and to a certain extent NXY as the share price will appreciate.
OPC also benefits from the exposure to NXY, itself a talked about take-over target. I think people forget about this variable, because, if NXY gets taken over by a major or sovereign fund, OPC likely does too or at the very least takes off into the sky on that prospect.
My own sense, which is actually not the "know it all" it may appear to be, is that NXY takes out OPC's leases, or the entire 35% remaining interest in long lake - soon, very, very soon. target, on a relative basis, than CLL. CLL will be trading at about $1.75 in about a month.