You call this a recovery?

Of course, for millions of Americans who've lost their jobs, or seen their wages stagnate, or had their home taken from them, the idea of recovery is a joke. For those who go to bed hungry and wake up worried, it always feels like a recession.

3% growth

Analysts who track the economy have generally become more hopeful in the past few months. They point to the many positive factors in the economy, and they predict steady above-trend growth of around 3% annualized for the next two years.

Those same analysts also believe the unemployment rate will decline very slowly and recognize that the rising tide isn't lifting all boats -- some are mired on the bottom.

Federal Reserve Chairman Ben Bernanke summed up this cautiously optimistic view in a speech last week, when he said: "The economy has stabilized and is growing again, although we can hardly be satisfied when one out of every 10 U.S. workers is unemployed and family finances remain under great stress."

Bernanke will testify at the Joint Economic Committee on Capitol Hill on Wednesday. He's expected to flesh out his views, explaining why he's unwilling to raise interest rates quite yet for fear of choking off the recovery.

There is an opposing view, of course. The more pessimistic economists worry that the negatives in the economy will begin to outweigh the positives, dragging down the growth rate. Another recession is unlikely, but possible, because the painful but necessary adjustments in the economy haven't been completed.

"The U.S. economy faces several structural headwinds," said economists for Goldman Sachs, who, at 2.5%, have the lowest 2010 GDP forecast among 53 economists surveyed by Blue Chip Economic Indicators.

Among those headwinds: weak labor income; the decline in spending by states and cities; the large oversupply of homes, offices, hotels and factories; and the continued credit squeeze. "As a result, we expect growth to slow gradually to an annual rate of 1.5% in the second half of 2010 before reaccelerating in 2011," Goldman economists wrote.

Everyone on both sides of the debate recognizes the same positives and negatives, but they weight them differently. The outcome could hinge on intangibles, such as confidence, which can be the decisive factor in decisions about investing, spending and saving.

We've already seen how increased confidence has boosted stock prices, with investors encouraged that the worst is behind them.