Den:

Your argumemts are logical, cogent and well presented. Obviously, we differ in our perceived potential for rogue elements impacting the supply of oil. My own opinion, likely rogue elements will not yet come to the fore. However, ultimately I see no alternative regarding the situation between Iran and Israel . With the threats Iran has made, there is no way that Israel can afford to be passive and take the chance that the messianic nuts in Iran will not act on their threats. The result of such conflict would be catastropic for the infrastructure of the world oil supply. When and if such an event comes to pass, assuming it does, I would not want to be on the sidelines out of oil. And one thing I do know. If such comes to be, we will all wake up one morning and without warning it will be underway. And once that genie is out of the bottle, it will absolutely take all of the powers of the worlds major influencers to put that Genie back in the bottle. And each of those powers has their own view of their interest!

Brian