Hi Scott,
Sorry to bring the Ontario Teachers remark in response to your well research Expansion funding post. It was intended as a humour to lighten up the difficult situation CLL shareholders are in.
I actually agree with your conclusions about necessity of partnership. Simply put there is not a chance the CLL cash flow will support the 400 to $500 million expansion in next 3 to 5 years.
I think the management is fully aware of this problem and is in intensive but unsuccessful search for the interesting partners.
In the meantime we have the more current problem related to bitumen prices which dropped to about $38bbl. With the operational cost at $21/bbl and interest obligation $19/bbl (assuming 16,000bbl/d production) we will run major deficit if these prices will not change. Unfortunately we do not have the hedges for bitumen production.
IMO recent CLL SP price weakness, despite the recent positive news, is a reflection of the bitumen oversupply on Alberta market.